According to a new report highlighted by CNBC, Manhattan’s luxury real estate market—specifically homes priced above $20 million—just experienced its best first quarter in six years. The numbers speak for themselves: 2,560 closed sales in Q1 2025, a nearly 29% increase over the same period in 2024. The total value of apartment sales reached a staggering $5.7 billion, up 56% year-over-year.
Cash Dominates the Market: 90% of High-End Sales Closed Without Loans
One of the most striking aspects of this resurgence is the dominance of all-cash deals. In fact, 58% of all transactions this quarter were in cash, and that number jumps to 90% for properties priced above $3 million. This reflects not only the liquidity of ultra-high-net-worth individuals but also their confidence in Manhattan real estate as a long-term investment.
As Nicole Gary of Keller Williams NYC put it: “People always feel that Manhattan real estate is a safe bet. It’s a hedge against inflation.” That sentiment is clearly resonating among luxury buyers.
Stock Market Volatility Drives Wealthy Buyers Toward Real Estate
While traditional investment avenues like the stock market have been shaky in recent months, many of our wealthiest clients have opted to park their capital in real estate. With inflation concerns and political unpredictability weighing on financial markets, real estate once again proves to be a stable, tangible asset class.
This isn’t new behavior—wealthy investors have long seen Manhattan as a safe harbor. What’s changed is the pace. Properties that sat quietly throughout 2024 have suddenly found buyers. Many of these deals are not only cash-based, but also executed quickly and quietly—often before hitting the public market.
Low Inventory and Private Listings Fuel Buyer Competition
While demand is climbing, supply hasn’t caught up. Inventory for ultra-luxury homes is relatively low, and that scarcity is driving competition—particularly among those seeking exclusivity. The trend toward off-market and private listings is accelerating. High-end buyers are no longer just looking for prime location and amenities; they want privacy and exclusivity too.
Compass’ year-end 2024 report had already predicted this tightening dynamic, and now we’re seeing it play out. As a result, the competitive environment is pushing prices upward and turning even traditionally slow segments into fast-moving ones.
Back-to-Office Mandates Reignite Demand for City Living
Another critical factor fueling the boom is the return to office culture, especially among professionals in finance and law. With Wall Street firms and other major employers requiring more in-person work, high earners are once again choosing to live close to their offices—reigniting demand for properties in the city’s core neighborhoods, including along Billionaires’ Row.
This isn’t just a bounce-back from remote work culture; it’s a realignment of lifestyle priorities. People want convenience, luxury, and presence—all of which Manhattan delivers.
Mid-Market Struggles While Luxury “Carries the Team”
Despite the encouraging numbers at the top, it’s important to recognize that the strength of the market is not uniform. Mid-market properties, those priced between $1 million and $3 million, are still lagging. Buyers in this range tend to be more cautious and are more affected by mortgage rates, inflation concerns, and job market uncertainties.
As Nicole Gary mentioned, “They’re struggling with, ‘Where’s the economy going? Is this a good time to invest?’” These buyers often require financing and are more risk-averse than their ultra-wealthy counterparts.
The Year of Normalization — And Opportunity
Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel described 2025 as “the year of getting back to normal.” After the rollercoaster of recent years, this normalization in the market—especially at the high end—is welcome news for developers, brokers, and investors alike.
But more importantly, it’s a sign of confidence. Confidence that Manhattan remains one of the most desirable real estate markets in the world. Confidence that despite global and national uncertainty, this city continues to offer unmatched value and prestige.
For investors with the means to act, the message is clear: opportunity is knocking again in Manhattan. And for those of us in the industry, it’s an exciting time to help shape what comes next.