Recovery Is Real—but It’s Selective
The first quarter of 2025 has brought welcome news for New York City real estate. While national headlines focus on volatility, Manhattan and Brooklyn have quietly staged a resilient comeback, especially at the top end of the market. According to Coldwell Banker Warburg’s latest report, contract activity for properties priced over $4 million remains strong, with roughly 30 deals per week—a clear signal that confidence hasn’t left New York. It’s just become more focused.
At Duke Properties, we’re seeing the same trend: a bifurcated market where move-in-ready, well-located properties move quickly, while others—particularly those requiring major renovation—struggle to gain traction.
The Turnkey Premium: Why Renovation-Ready Homes Are Winning
In today’s market, one thing is clear—convenience is king. The cost of renovations has surged, with mid-range remodels now pushing $700 per square foot, more than double what many projects cost just a few years ago. Buyers, especially those relocating or purchasing secondary residences, aren’t interested in months of contractor delays or construction surprises. They want homes that are ready on Day One.
That’s driving demand for modern condos in neighborhoods like the Lower East Side, where design-forward inventory aligns with buyer expectations. At the same time, larger three-bedroom units continue to perform well in Tribeca and the Upper West Side, where space and layout flexibility command a premium.
Harlem’s Historic Market Faces Headwinds
While many neighborhoods are seeing signs of life, Harlem is facing a second year of contraction. Once a magnet for brownstone enthusiasts and young professionals, contract activity is down nearly 40% since 2021. The reasons are complex—ranging from price sensitivity and interest rate hikes to fewer listings in turnkey condition.
That said, Harlem still presents value opportunities, particularly for buyers willing to renovate or long-term investors focused on appreciation over immediate returns. But success in Harlem, for now, will require patience, pricing realism, and clear positioning.
Rental Pressures Are Nudging Renters into the Buyer Market
Another trend shaping the market is rental pressure. With Manhattan median rents exceeding $4,500/month and competition for quality rental units reaching new extremes, many would-be renters are reassessing their math. The result? More renters are entering the buyer pool, seeking stability and long-term value.
Yet this movement is measured. Buyers are cautious, and bidding wars—once routine—are now more the domain of rentals than sales. In today’s purchase market, price stabilization and buyer due diligence are replacing emotional, fast-paced bidding.
Recovery with Realism: Buyers Are Back—But They’re Smarter Than Ever
One of the most important things to understand about this recovery is that it’s not driven by frenzy—but by focus. Today’s buyers are data-driven, value-oriented, and extremely selective. They want quality, transparency, and price alignment with market realities.
For sellers, this means one thing: if your property isn’t priced right and prepared for showtime, it will sit. At Duke Properties, we’ve seen listings that reflect thoughtful preparation and realistic pricing close quickly—even in this cautious environment.
Looking Ahead: Stability Over Speculation
While we don’t expect explosive gains in the short term, stability is a win in today’s macroeconomic context. High interest rates, shifting federal policy, and broader market uncertainty have not derailed NYC real estate—instead, they’ve refined it.
For serious buyers, this is an opportunity. Values are holding. Interest remains high for the right product. And the long-term strength of New York City—its culture, infrastructure, and global significance—remains untouched.
Final Thoughts: The City Moves Forward, One Smart Deal at a Time
At Duke Properties, we view this recovery as both measured and meaningful. It’s not about chasing the next boom—it’s about aligning with what today’s market demands: transparency, quality, and authenticity.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, now is the time to act with intention. The New York City real estate market isn’t just showing signs of recovery—it’s reminding us what resilience truly looks like.
— Albert Dweck
Founder & CEO, Duke Properties