Signs of Fatigue in Manhattan’s Highest Tier
For more than a decade, Manhattan’s trophy home market—defined by properties priced at $10 million and above—has been viewed as one of the most resilient sectors in U.S. real estate. These ultra-luxury homes often trade hands quietly, in all-cash deals, and largely independent of interest rate shifts. But even this rarefied segment is showing signs of vulnerability.
Market Volatility Meets Buyer Hesitation
So, what’s behind this softness? The answer lies not in real estate fundamentals, but in the broader financial climate. With the S&P 500 down 5.3% by the end of April, and greater volatility earlier in the month, high-net-worth individuals are opting for caution.
As Donna Olshan puts it, “The reason for the decline in trophy sales is linked to the wild swings in the stock market.” And she’s right—when personal wealth is deeply tied to portfolio performance, even the most luxurious real estate becomes a less immediate priority.
At Duke Properties, we’ve seen this dynamic before. Ultra-luxury buyers often wait for calm before committing to high-stakes, high-profile purchases. In this space, confidence is everything—and right now, uncertainty is the mood of the moment.
Luxury Is Still Moving—Just Not at the Top
It’s worth noting that the slowdown is not across the entire luxury market. In April alone, 113 contracts were signed for homes priced at $4 million or more in NYC, with an average asking price of $7.5 million. This suggests that affluent buyers are still active—but the top tier ($10M+) is pausing.
This reflects a familiar pattern: when financial markets get choppy, buyers recalibrate. Homes priced between $5M and $10M saw 775 listings last month, with a median 82 days on market, while homes between $1M and $5M spent just 59 days on average—still very competitive.
Trophy Properties Require Patience and Precision
The challenge with trophy properties is that they serve a highly specific buyer pool. These aren’t impulse purchases—they’re lifestyle investments, status symbols, or generational assets. That means deals take longer, and the buyer’s emotional and financial readiness plays an outsized role.
As Hannah Jones of Realtor.com notes, buyers at this level are now in “wait-and-see” mode. It’s not a question of whether they want the home—it’s whether they feel confident enough in their broader financial outlook to act now.
What Sellers (and Developers) Need to Know
For sellers in this market—especially those listing townhomes or penthouses over $10 million—the key takeaway is this: expect a longer runway. Pricing strategy, staging, and positioning are more important than ever.
That also applies to developers planning future trophy inventory. The demand hasn’t disappeared, but the path to transaction is longer. Sellers must be more flexible, more patient, and realistic in their valuation.
Take 16 East 64th Street, a six-story townhome with an asking price of $25 million, which just went under contract. The original purchase price was $21.5 million in 2005, followed by extensive renovations. It’s a beautiful example of trophy real estate—but even homes like this are sensitive to timing and buyer sentiment.
The Long View: Manhattan Is Still a Global Magnet
Let’s not forget: New York City still commands unmatched appeal on the global stage. High-end properties here offer long-term value, prestige, and liquidity that few other cities can rival.
At Duke Properties, we believe this moment is part of a natural market cycle, not a collapse. For those positioned correctly, it may even be an opportunity—buyers waiting on the sidelines today may move quickly when volatility cools.
Final Thoughts: Trophy Buyers May Pause, But They Rarely Disappear
The data from April is a helpful reminder: even the most robust markets have breathing points. Manhattan’s $10M+ segment isn’t broken—it’s taking a breather. For developers, brokers, and investors, this is the time to strategize, not panic.
Luxury is still alive in New York—it’s just moving a little more deliberately.
— Albert Dweck
Founder & CEO, Duke Properties